Duck populations hold steady while May pond estimate drops to lowest in over two decades
MEMPHIS, Tenn. – Sept. 2, 2025 – The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) today released its 2025 Waterfowl Population Status Report. This report contains results from surveys and population estimation methods conducted by the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service and numerous state and provincial partners.
The estimate for total breeding ducks in the traditional survey area was 34 million, unchanged from the 2024 estimate, and 4% below the long-term average (since 1955). Mallards were estimated at 6.6 million, similar to 2024, and 17% below the long-term average.
Pintails were estimated at 2.2 million, 13% above 2024, but 41% below the long-term average. Under the new USFWS interim pintail harvest strategy, hunters in all four flyways are expected to have a three-pintail daily bag limit option for next year’s 2026–2027 season based on this year’s breeding population results. To learn more about the interim pintail harvest strategy, visit the USFWS website.
The 2025 May pond estimate was 4.2 million, a 19% decrease from the 2024 estimate of 5.2 million and 20% below the long-term average. Notably, this marks the lowest pond estimate since 2004.
“Waterfowl again demonstrated their adaptability to changing water conditions despite overall dry conditions in 2024, as late-nesting species capitalized on spring rains in the prairies and those that settled in the Boreal held their own,” said Dr. Steve Adair, Ducks Unlimited chief scientist. “These flexible breeding strategies and use of continental habitat resources in 2024 appear to have contributed to decent production last year, which carried over to a similar breeding population this spring.”
Other Key Takeaways
- According to the companion Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) report, the USFWS is expected to recommend liberal frameworks for the 2026–2027 duck season across all four flyways.
- Blue-winged teal estimates in the traditional survey area were 4.4 million, a 4% decrease from 2024, which is expected to keep hunters in the Central, Mississippi and Atlantic flyways at a 9-day early teal season for 2026–2027.
- The Boreal Forest and other northern survey areas saw generally drier, but variable, habitat conditions. Yet an early spring coupled with prairie drought resulted in another year of an above-average number of breeding ducks settling in the Boreal.
- Canvasbacks (+22%) and redheads (+17%) saw notable increases from 2024.
- Eastern survey area duck populations remained healthy, reflecting overall stable wetland conditions. Atlantic Flyway hunters are expected to have another four-mallard daily bag limit for the 2026–2027 season.
Pond Numbers
The prairies have now faced several consecutive years of drought, among the longest stretches in recent memory. In early spring of 2025, the prairies were once again dry, but timely rainfall in mid-May recharged wetlands in portions of North Dakota, southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba. These rains should benefit later-nesting ducks, though they came after many early-nesters like pintails and mallards had already moved through.
Much of central Saskatchewan received less than half an inch of rainfall in April and May, leaving many wetlands dry. Wetland conditions in the Alberta prairies varied widely, as scattered rainfall in the south did little to ease the drought, but other areas saw local improvement.
Pond numbers in the U.S. prairies declined 34% from 2024. Timely rains in 2024 fell prior to the survey being conducted, which contributed to the elevated pond counts last year. However, spring rains in 2025 came after the surveys were flown, and when coupled with the effects of a dry winter, contributed to the lowest U.S. pond estimate in seven years.
“Although May rains provided some relief to extremely dry winter conditions, the cumulative effects of widespread and long-term drought in the prairies are apparent, as parched soils soak up available moisture and more and more wetlands continue to dry out,” Adair said. “There are long-term benefits of recycling nutrients and exposure of seed banks, but droughts are painful when they’re happening.”
Protecting the Duck Factory
Often called the Duck Factory, the Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains produces more than half of North America’s breeding ducks each year. But this landscape faces mounting pressures. Ongoing wetland drainage, grassland loss and other threats continue to erode the region’s capacity to support breeding ducks.
Ducks Unlimited is working with private landowners and other stakeholders through a variety of programs to protect the prairies. Notably, in the summer of 2024, DU received a record-breaking $100 million gift from Cox Enterprises and Jim Kennedy, establishing a fund specifically earmarked to protect this critical landscape. DU has already made great strides with this gift, protecting over 45,000 acres of habitat to date, with some of the highest densities of breeding duck pairs on the continent, all while helping ranchers and farmers maintain their way of life.
“The continued loss of wetlands and grasslands in the Prairie Pothole Region is the most significant threat to North America’s waterfowl,” said Ducks Unlimited CEO Adam Putnam. “While DU works across the continent to ensure that waterfowl have adequate habitat across their entire life cycle, the prairies remain our highest conservation priority. Meeting the challenges in this landscape requires strong public policy and broad partnerships. Conservation is a long game. Together, we are working to ensure that when the rains return, protected habitat is there to receive it and sustain abundant waterfowl for generations to come.”
The resilience of waterfowl populations reflected in this report is made possible by the support of a wide array of governmental, nonprofit, and corporate partners provided to Ducks Unlimited’s continental conservation efforts, which have now surpassed 19 million acres conserved across North America.
- View the full 2025 Waterfowl Population Status Report here.
- Learn more about the survey here.
Salute to our Partners
Among the conservation community, waterfowl management in North America remains the envy of the world. Ducks Unlimited salutes the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Canadian Wildlife Service, and the member agencies of the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific Flyway Councils for their ongoing leadership in conducting the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, banding programs, harvest surveys and other data collection efforts that are the lifeblood of our science-based waterfowl management.
Ducks Unlimited Inc. is the world’s largest nonprofit organization dedicated to conserving North America’s continually disappearing wetlands, grasslands and other waterfowl habitats. Established in 1937, Ducks Unlimited has restored or protected more than 19 million acres thanks to contributions from more than a million supporters across the continent. Guided by science, DU’s projects benefit waterfowl, wildlife and people in all 50 states. DU is growing its mission through a historic $3 billion Conservation For A Continent comprehensive campaign. Learn more at www.ducks.org.
